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Newcomb's Paradox again. This time I'm making it as utterly simple as possible.
The Predictor is playing the following game: they examine a subject - you, for instance - they get two boxes - boxes A and B - and they drop the two boxes off with the subject. Then they leave.
The rules are simple. Box A is transparent and contains €1000. Box B is opaque, and contains either nothing or €1 000 000. If the Predictor thinks you'll take Box A, Box B contains nothing. If the Predictor thinks you'll leave Box A just sitting there and walk away from a thousand euros right in front of you, Box B contains the million.
Remember, though - the Predictor is gone. No-one is watching. You can even step right up and open Box B before you decide whether to take Box A. Heck, you could get your good friend down at the bank to come examine all the bills, look up the serial numbers, and verify they're valid if you like. You have full control.
(Why, you could even take Box A and leave Box B on the table unopened. Dunno why you'd do that, but you could - you have the power.)
But: if the Predictor thinks you're not going to leave that thousand on the table, if the Predictor thinks that the next person walking by after you and all your friends are gone won't find the thousand on the table, then the Predictor is going to leave Box B empty. Only if the Predictor is sure you'll abandon Box A's contents will you find the million in Box B.
What would you do?
Edit: If you would act differently given different conditions on the hypothetical (e.g. the presence or absence of the million, the track record of the Predictor to date, the outcome of a coin flip - whatever), please describe how.
The Predictor is playing the following game: they examine a subject - you, for instance - they get two boxes - boxes A and B - and they drop the two boxes off with the subject. Then they leave.
The rules are simple. Box A is transparent and contains €1000. Box B is opaque, and contains either nothing or €1 000 000. If the Predictor thinks you'll take Box A, Box B contains nothing. If the Predictor thinks you'll leave Box A just sitting there and walk away from a thousand euros right in front of you, Box B contains the million.
Remember, though - the Predictor is gone. No-one is watching. You can even step right up and open Box B before you decide whether to take Box A. Heck, you could get your good friend down at the bank to come examine all the bills, look up the serial numbers, and verify they're valid if you like. You have full control.
(Why, you could even take Box A and leave Box B on the table unopened. Dunno why you'd do that, but you could - you have the power.)
But: if the Predictor thinks you're not going to leave that thousand on the table, if the Predictor thinks that the next person walking by after you and all your friends are gone won't find the thousand on the table, then the Predictor is going to leave Box B empty. Only if the Predictor is sure you'll abandon Box A's contents will you find the million in Box B.
What would you do?
Edit: If you would act differently given different conditions on the hypothetical (e.g. the presence or absence of the million, the track record of the Predictor to date, the outcome of a coin flip - whatever), please describe how.
