The Packbats' Weblog

So, just out of curiosity...

[Poll #1331652]

Feel free to elaborate in comments, natch.

EDIT: If I did it right, it should be posting to a "twitter" filter - tell me if you want on it.

Another classic game-theory hypothetical for you all:

Yesterday, you and an accomplice pulled off the bank job of the century - a haul large enough for each of you to retire to your favorite island paradise with no extradition to your home country. The money is all untraceably socked away in secret bank accounts, but, unfortunately, the police caught up to you on your way out of town. After a high-speed chase, you both ended up in separate cells in solitary, where you have been stewing away overnight.

This morning, the state attorney visited you in your cell.

"Okay, listen up," he said. "I know you'll just deny it if we ask, but we know you two did it, even if we can't prove it. So I'm going to offer you a deal. Even if both of you say nothing, we can get a year inside for both of you on a reckless endangerment charge for that wild driving last night. I'm willing to drop that charge and let you go if you'll testify against your partner.

"But before you start thinking about altruism and all that, I'm warning you - my partner's right down the hall, offering the exact same deal to your partner. If you clam up and your partner talks, you'll get twenty-five years and your partner will be let off scot free. If you both testify, I'll give you time off for cooperation - fifteen years apiece.

"That's the deal - your choice. Think it over. I'll be back tonight."

Assume that you do not know and have no loyalty to your accomplice - all you want is a minimum sentence for yourself. (You can make up a scenario to explain it if you like - the key part is that you're strangers, only together for one job.)

[Poll #1207554]

(Edit: Anyone interested in further reading may wish to read the Wikipedia Prisoner's Dilemma article.)

(Edit 2: The crosspost to thequestionclub may be found here.)

Reposted from my Facebook:

Imagine the following scenario (a variation on the classic dilemma known as Newcomb's Problem):

About six months ago, a crack team of psychologists came up with a brilliant new device, and decided to run a curious experiment to test it. The experiment takes the following form:

1. Each subject, chosen by lottery, is provided with the money to purchase two identical plain manilla envelopes.
   
2. They and their envelopes are given free transportation to the lab, where they (but not the envelopes) fill out a survey.
   
3. They wait approximately one hour, and then are ushered into the experiment room.
   
4. In that room, they are permitted to examine three stacks - one containing twenty U.S. fifty-dollar bills, one containing twenty fifty-dollar-bill-sized pieces of blank U.S. fifty-dollar-bill stock, and one containing one thousand U.S. one-thousand-dollar bills.
   
5. An attendant removes the stack of thousand-dollar bills. They are instructed to privately place one of the remaining stacks in each of their manilla envelopes, so that they would have two apparently-identical envelopes, and then signal.
   
6. On the signal, the attendant returns with a case, which either does or does not contain the million dollars. The subject then gives either of their two envelopes in return for the case.

There is only one catch in this procedure: the case either contains blank bills or the million, as follows. If the psychologists predict the subject would return the envelope with the thousand dollars, the case contains the million. But if the psychologists predict that the subject will return the envelope with the blank paper, the case contains blank paper. And in each of the one hundred trials so far, the psychologists have always gotten it right. Everyone has either left with the thousand or left with the million.

(Edit: Well, not quite. A few clever people thought to randomize the envelopes so that they didn't know whether they lost the thousand or not. About half of them walked away with a thousand, the other half with nothing.)

The experiment is valid - it has been tested by dozens of experts in experimental protocol, sleight of hand, hypnotism, and every other relevant field. They neither coerce your choice nor switch out the million if you choose to keep the thousand.

You are in the room, with your two envelopes, and the attendant is before you with his case.

Do you give him the thousand dollars or the blank paper?

Naming no names, of course.

Edit: And greetings to all the peeps from the_zaniak chiming in!

Edit #2: And thequestionclub! (Wow, that's a lot of people.)

[Poll #1166935]

From ceruleanst: science brings us the most-wanted and most-unwanted songs, based on the opinions of 500 respondents to a spring-1996 web survey. If their assumptions are correct...

[Poll #1124531]

Enjoy! (Or don't enjoy!)

[Poll #1058418]

(No, "something"-made-it-happen ain't an option. I already said that no thing made it happen.)

Edit: Note that the scenario described involves causal indeterminism, not predictive indeterminism.

( The context. )

[Poll #1040097]

P.S. Have started doing research back at school - will be busy most days. No, it's not about LJ; I'm a Mech. E.

Hey - done three posts already, may as well keep going!

[Poll #1031766]

If there are one or more people on your friends list who make your world a better place just because they exist, and who you would not have met (in real life or not) without the internet, then post this same sentence in your journal.

Oh, and as long as I'm copying other people, here's one based on the idea of some Pharyngula commenter from months ago – if you were going to wear a sign with the following on it for a day, how would you fill in the blanks?

[Poll #1002174]

1. Just restarted my paper diary. Handwriting (well, printing) still terrible.

2. My community college campus shop seems to offer the best prices on printmaking paper. I still don't believe it.

3. Laptop's back! Did I mention that? I don't think I mentioned that.

4. Meaningless poll!

[Poll #997142]